Marginalized groups in India are systematically excluded from the elite higher education and state administration through the increasingly mediated “shadow education” system, as economic hardship and geographic isolation make access impossible. Modern state governments have responded with a “Contract State” model, in which targeted welfare funds state-sponsored access to private coaching markets. The Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) mechanism in Himachal Pradesh's Medha Protsahan Yojana, which employs a dual-safeguard architecture with a ₹2.50 lakh family income ceiling and a relaxed 65% academic baseline for Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates, is evaluated structurally in this paper. The study uses descriptive and inferential statistics, such as Independent Samples T-Tests, Kruskal-Wallis H Tests, and Chi-Square Tests of Independence, to evaluate these thresholds using primary administrative data from the 2020–21 beneficiary cohort (N = 500). Empirical evidence indicates that a flat academic baseline would virtually exclude tribal beneficiaries due to spatial disadvantage and thus mathematically validate the state's structural protections. Additionally, the data shows that the SC cohort is extremely economically vulnerable (median annual income of ₹40,000), which is strongly correlated with early non-STEM educational sorting. Results suggest that targeted post-secondary DBTs are effective at preventing elite capture but concurrent early-stage secondary interventions are needed to prevent marginalized students from exiting technical pathways before coaching subsidies are available.